Wisconsin: The New Ohio?

Commentary By Scott Rasmussen

In Election 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground that put George W. Bush over the top. This year, it might come down to Wisconsin.

That’s a state President Obama won by 14 points four years ago. But Wisconsin has gone through an amazing two years of nonstop campaigning since Gov. Scott Walker was elected in 2010. After he took on the teachers unions, there were efforts to recall several Republican state senators and then Walker himself.

The governor not only survived, but he won more votes in his recall election this year than he won on Election Day in 2010. But it’s not what happened in Wisconsin that could make the state decisive in Election 2012; it’s what’s happening all around the country.

All signs point to a close race with just over a week to go. In fact, current polling suggests it might be close enough to produce a split decision, with Mitt Romney winning the popular vote and the president keeping his job with a victory in the Electoral College.

Most national polls show Romney with a very slight lead of around 2 percentage points.

Still, it’s Obama who has the edge in the Electoral College. Rasmussen Reports currently projects that the president should win states with 237 Electoral College votes. Romney has enough states to win 235. Those projections assume Florida and North Carolina end up in the GOP column — an assumption the Obama campaign contests.

That leaves seven toss-up states — Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada.

To move into the White House, Romney absolutely needs to win Virginia’s 13 electoral votes. If he can accomplish that goal, he just needs to win Ohio and one other swing state to reach the magic number of 270 for victory.

Romney has never led in Ohio according to scores of public polls. The numbers in the Buckeye State so far suggest that the race is either tied or leaning slightly in Obama’s favor.

If Ohio goes for the president, Romney has a few perilous paths to victory available to him. All require him to carry Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes.

The simplest path without Ohio would be for Romney to win Wisconsin, Colorado and one other swing state. It’s plausible, but an uphill struggle. The latest Rasmussen Reports polling in Wisconsin shows the president up by 2 points.

Despite the polls, some conservative activists in Wisconsin think it’s possible to pull off an upset. They point out that, unlike Ohio, the state was not flooded with anti-Romney ads over the summer (in Wisconsin, they were still fighting about the governor’s election recall at the time). That means more voters may be open to supporting the GOP candidate.

Additionally, in Ohio, almost all analysts believe the Democrats have a better ground game to get voters to the polls. That’s not the case in Wisconsin. The Republican ground game got a good and very successful dry run during the recall election in June. And, of course, the man on the ticket with Romney is from Wisconsin. If Paul Ryan is able to pull in just a few extra votes, it could make a lot of difference.

On election night, the first places to watch will be Virginia and Florida. If Romney wins there, watch Ohio. If the president wins Ohio, Wisconsin is likely to be the decisive battleground state of Election 2012.

One Comment on “Wisconsin: The New Ohio?”

  1. BABY GLOCK says:

    [The Flight and Deliverance of Joshua Glover—a True Story from 1852. Today, a new form of slavery quietly shackles us—will Wisconsin allow this to happen, after such a glorious past?]
    Let us return to a terrible day,
    A time we did not forget,
    The vice of slavery tainted us then—
    A fact we came to regret,
    But WISCONSIN led a valiant charge
    For the good, the fair, and the free
    And it stands TODAY, as it stood back then,
    As a bastion for LIBERTY.
    From a captive cage in a brutal place,
    Joshua Glover made his run,
    And with God’s own speed he headed North
    Seeking the Liberty of God’s Son,
    But at RACINE, he was tracked and snared,
    To return him to the Devil’s fate,
    Until the PEOPLE’S FURY ROSE,
    And, WISCONSIN helped him escape! (1)
    He was smuggled across the border,
    He became a brand new man.
    But the people did not end it there—
    They finished what they began!
    They did not rest till their courts declared
    The Fugitive Slave Law was DEAD (2),
    In the winning fight for freedom’s rights,
    We have left behind that difficult time,
    When our Nation was wracked and torn,
    By an evil practice by evil men,
    Who claimed souls before they were born.
    Dear God, it has risen again!
    It still strains and strives, with vicious lies,
    To enslave both bodies and souls of men!
    (1) Joshua’s flight from St. Louis, his capture at Racine, his freedom at the hands of Sherman Booth and a mighty mob of Christian Abolitionists, and subsequent hidden passage to Canada via the underground railroad IS THE STUFF OF LEGENDS—it’s all true, and you can see markers in Milwaukee and elsewhere commemorating his thrilling deliverance. Take time to visit Wisconsin—the people are friendly, the fishing is fantastic, industry is picking up bid time, and a clean pure spirit of FREEDOM IS EVERYWHERE—as seen in the recent tumultuous VICORY OF SCOTT WALKER. Fair laws, honest contracts, and and end to UNION SLAVERY is working miracles. PRIVATE ENTERPRISE GIVES US FREEDOM; “trickle down government is slavery” with the White House holding a brutal whip.
    (2) Joshua’s escape became the basis for a civil suit, which was resolved when the Wisconsin Supreme Court voided the Fugitive Slave Act. Later, Wisconsin sent 91,000 of her finest sons to fight for liberty with the Union Army in the Civil War. THIS IS A STATE STEEPED IN LIBERTY FOR ALL—from labor union despots (Walker’s again) and…even from the new slavery of economic tyranny, a foreign cult’s war upon America, and Presstitutes who seek to enslave us in IGNORANCE. It shall not stand—WISCONSIN SHALL, AGAIN, SHOW THE WAY!
    No rights reserved:
    Slavery now, here, directed from the White House?
    YES: We, our children, and their children are enslaved to TRILLIONS IN WASTED DEBT
    YES: We are shackled by a complete lack of competency, vision, capability.
    YES: “Obamacare” enslaves all of us to its dictates…and the “death panels” are forming.
    YES; He enslaves our troops with betrayal, treason, and fear—Dear God, they kill themselves!
    YES: He has enslaved the Presstitutes, the Media Whores, the “public news media” [NPR]
    YES: He enslaved our BENGHAZI martyrs—unto death.
    Do you hear us Racine? Are you up to a challenge after so long?
    Do you hear us, Milwaukee? Do you still have the blood of the Patriots and Abolitionists?
    Do you hear us, Madison, Green Bay, Kenosha, Appleton, Waukesha, Oshkosh…and so many more beautiful places with good hearts and strong faith. WILL YOU AND YOURS BE FREE?
    Fix bayonets; advance to the Voting Booths! JOIN US, BE PART OF THE WIN!
    No rights reserved-copy, send freely.

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