The Man Behind the USC/L.A. Times Poll that Predicted Trump Winning: ‘Beats Me!’

“It was an odd experience,” Arie Kapteyn said Wednesday morning.

The same might be said of the furor that surrounded the Daybreak poll during the campaign. It was the only major public survey that consistently showed Donald Trump winning. As a result, it drew frequent and loud denunciations from many Democrats, especially as election day neared and passions rose.

obmama-despair

“What you think personally doesn’t matter. I thought Clinton would win. But that shouldn’t change the numbers.”

But on Wednesday, as many other pollsters struggled to explain why their surveys seemed blind to Trump’s support, Kapteyn and his colleagues were among the few who could say their work got the basic issue right.

“To be honest, I was surprised.”

“To be honest, I was surprised,” said Kapteyn, a USC economist and expert on public opinion.

In an interview several days ago with a radio station in Holland, where he grew up and received his doctoral degree, Kapteyn had predicted that “Clinton is going to win, but I think it’s going to be a lot tighter than people think,” he recalled.

That prediction, he said, highlighted the problem with most efforts at political analysis….(read more)

Source: LA Times



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.