The Man Behind the USC/L.A. Times Poll that Predicted Trump Winning: ‘Beats Me!’Posted: November 10, 2016
It was the only major public survey that consistently showed Donald Trump winning.
“When you look at pundits and their predictions, the correlation is zero. You have to trust the numbers. Don’t get distracted by all the things you think about plausibility.”
“It was an odd experience,” Arie Kapteyn said Wednesday morning.
The same might be said of the furor that surrounded the Daybreak poll during the campaign. It was the only major public survey that consistently showed Donald Trump winning. As a result, it drew frequent and loud denunciations from many Democrats, especially as election day neared and passions rose.
“What you think personally doesn’t matter. I thought Clinton would win. But that shouldn’t change the numbers.”
But on Wednesday, as many other pollsters struggled to explain why their surveys seemed blind to Trump’s support, Kapteyn and his colleagues were among the few who could say their work got the basic issue right.
“To be honest, I was surprised.”
“To be honest, I was surprised,” said Kapteyn, a USC economist and expert on public opinion.
In an interview several days ago with a radio station in Holland, where he grew up and received his doctoral degree, Kapteyn had predicted that “Clinton is going to win, but I think it’s going to be a lot tighter than people think,” he recalled.
That prediction, he said, highlighted the problem with most efforts at political analysis….(read more)
Source: LA Times
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