Tax Overhaul Could Jolt Dollar as U.S. Companies Bring Home CashPosted: December 26, 2017
Corporations could repatriate as much as $400 billion in earnings and cash from abroad.
Companies could bring back as much as $400 billion, according to one estimate, as they take advantage of a one-time cut for repatriation of earnings and cash held overseas written into the GOP tax overhaul. That typically requires them to sell foreign holdings and buy assets denominated in dollars, which could boost the U.S. currency.
Gauging the dollar’s trajectory is crucial to both investors and corporations. The currency’s climb over the past several years has been blamed for pressuring profits among U.S. multinational companies and making exporters’ goods less competitive abroad.
Its trajectory also influences prices for raw materials like oil, copper and gold, which are denominated in dollars and become more expensive to foreign investors when the dollar rises.
Many investors expected the dollar to strengthen in 2017, boosted by the Trump administration’s fiscal-stimulus and infrastructure-spending pledges. Instead, the currency as of Friday had fallen nearly 7% against its peers, as key White House initiatives stalled.
“There should be some kind of boost to the dollar” from the tax plan, said Lee Ferridge, head of macrostrategy for North America at State Street Global Markets. “But I will be using that as a selling opportunity.”
Some analysts said such a rally could mark a climax for the dollar’s nearly seven-year-long bull market, as monetary policy begins to tighten in other developed economies … (read more)